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Research questionHow can LLM trajectory evaluations distinguish genuine prefix value and early outcome information from compute and difficulty confounds?A successful continuation may reflect extra generation budget rather than information in the existing trace. Likewise, an apparently predictive early signal may indicate that a problem is easy instead of indicating whether the current attempt will succeed.
AI
Evaluation & Benchmarks
Reasoning
Latest papersRecent research connected to this question, newest first.It's the Problem, Not the Path: Budget and Difficulty Confounds in LLM Reasoning TrajectoriesThe evidence concerns 178 problem-model cells formed from 89 MATH problems and two small open models, including matched-token restart comparisons and early-window internal-signal analyses. It also includes generation-free analyses of public corpora; conclusions are not established for other models, tasks, or trajectory settings.research paper · Sep 3, 2026
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