Research questionHow can quantitative trading systems test weak historical regularities under regime shifts without using future information?Historical regularities may reflect latent market states that persist temporarily and recur unevenly, while their predictive signal remains weak. Backtests can therefore mistake future information or temporary state dependence for durable evidence. Latest papersRecent research connected to this question, newest first.The Axiomatic Trader: Latent Regularity, Information Budgets, and the Canonical Form of a Quantitative Investment SystemThe paper formalizes these issues as five quantified axioms, with declared constants for invariance, recurrence, coherence time, signal strength, and predictability. It theoretically derives a canonical quantitative-investment workflow and tests the axioms at their declared constants on real market series; the reported evidence rejects particular declarations, including conservative κ = 1 and an exponential-decay instance, rather than overturning the axioms themselves.research paper · Sep 2, 2026